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The small math behind arbitrage betting... · XDL

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The small math behind arbitrage betting...

The small math behind arbitrage betting...

@Clark

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The simplest arb bot on Claude Opus 5 made +$1,847 PnL in one day. And it used just one strategy: Buying YES + NO < $1 price gaps. I publicly deposited just $100 on a fully new wallet 24h our ago. Results are shocking, you can verify on chain. I thought my BTC arbitrage bot

A trader made +$543,031 on Polymarket by doing something most people find boring. 118,798 predictions. 61% win Rate. While everyone hunts for moonshots, this bot hunts for pricing errors. The playbook: > find odds that are slow to react > enter with limit orders before the

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $23.59 Result: +$246,578 The bot trades short-term crypto Up/Down markets using dynamic hedging and a directional residual: 1. First buys the outcome its model considers underpriced It continuously

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the

This guy built an HFT algorithm on Polymarket with an average trade size of $34.90 Result: +$129,827 Nearly 99% of its volume comes from 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets, where it combines asynchronous pairing, MERGE, and a directional residual: 1. Accumulates both sides of the

This trader used Claude to build a Quant Bot and made +$563,921 on Polymarket 86,044 predictions in 107 days with a 50% win rate How is this account bringing in about $5,270 per day? The logic is simple: 1. It runs through short crypto “Up / Down” markets at about 34 trades

This guy built a trading bot on Polymarket with an average trade size of $9 Result: +$108,248 I analyzed its trades and found that its core strategy is based on dynamically accumulating both outcomes at different points throughout 5 minute BTC Up/Down markets It uses price

This guy built a Monte Carlo pricing engine with Claude 5.5 Opus and it made $659 a day on Polymarket. The result is already +$85,706 PnL in 130 days with only $35 per average trade, repeating the same setup 15 times every hour across BTC Up or Down markets. Simulation, pricing

@Himanshu Kumar

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